A surprising and often overlooked consequence of the Trump administration’s escalating conflict with Iran could be a resurgence in the international reliance on coal. The possibility comes as the Trump administration introduces sanctions against Tehran that directly affect the global oil market.
While much of the narrative around U.S.-Iran relations focuses on diplomatic tensions and potential military repercussions, the economic and environmental consequences are equally significant. Oil exports from Iran dropped after the United States reinstated sanctions in 2018, and a further reduction is likely to push countries with a strong oil-dependency to alternate sources of energy.
Iran is the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and its contribution to global oil supplies is substantial, providing around 2.5 million barrels per day. As U.S. sanctions tighten, the world could struggle to make up for the shortfall if tensions lead to the complete cutting off of Iran’s oil supply, causing oil prices to rise.
Analysts argue that such a scenario could involve countries turning to coal to make up for the energy deficit. Although the use of coal has been widely criticized, and despite efforts to transition to green alternatives, it remains one of the world’s most prevalent energy sources.
The World Coal Association states that in 2018 coal accounted for 27% of primary world energy consumption, with 38% of global electricity produced from coal. Mainly because, it’s plentiful, widely distributed, and relatively affordable. Countries like China and India, large importers of Iranian oil, might increase reliance on coal to offset higher oil prices and supply shortages.
“The shift towards renewable energy will be slow in countries without the financial means or technical advancements to make such a drastic change on a necessary scale,” says energy analyst Joshua Rhodes. “In this case, coal could serve as a stopgap as these countries look for other sources to replace the loss of Iranian oil.”
This potential hike in coal usage raises concerns within the environmental community. As the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, coal is largely responsible for global greenhouse gas emissions contributing to climate change. According to the World Health Organization, burning coal also emits pollutants that can have a significant impact on public health.
The Trump administration’s hardline stance on Iran seems unlikely to change any time soon, with President Trump being quoted as recently, “We will continue to put maximum pressure until Iran changes its destructive behavior.” As the pressure mounts, the fluctuating supply and prices in the oil market could accelerate the turn to alternative energy sources.
Nonetheless, should increasing coal reliance become a reality, it’s essential to consider the counteracting progress made in environmental protection and emission reduction regions across the globe. The Paris Agreement, a global initiative to combat climate change, aims to limit the rise in global temperatures and transition its signatories to sustainable, low-carbon economies. An uptake in coal consumption could undermine these efforts, sparking a domino effect on numerous aspects of global infrastructure, environment and public health.
The situation further emphasizes the pressing need for a holistic approach to foreign policy, one that considers not only political and economic impacts but also environmental implications. While the world waits to see how the U.S.-Iran conflict will unfold, it’s safe to say that the outcome will have implications that reach far beyond the geographical boundaries of these two nations. The potential renaissance of coal usage is merely one of an array of unanticipated ripple effects.
Original Source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/05/coal-reliance-iran-war-fossil-fuels
